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No signs that Canadian housing market is headed towards a bubble, economists say

Despite a flurry of debate in the media about whether Canada is headed towards a real estate bubble or not, there are many good signs in the Toronto market right now.

Interest rates are low, sale prices rose four-per cent last year, and condo construction sites are everywhere.

In fact, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reported that 2011 was the second-strongest year on record since 1994.

So if the market is strong, why is there so much talk about a bubble?

One factor sparking the debate is that changes are coming. Richard Silver, TREB’s president, says that Toronto has moved from being a sellers’ market to a more balanced one. More listings are available for buyers to chose from, compared to when several buyers would compete for one property.

Adding to this, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts that average sale prices will be flat in 2012.

“[A bubble] need[s] a trigger,” CREA chef economist Gregory Klump told the Globe and Mail. “A massive oversupply, or a massive decline in demand – and those triggers are not in the cards when you look at the prevailing economic forecast.”

Don Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network, agrees. “I do not believe that Toronto, as a whole, is in a bubble,” he told the Toronto Sun. “I think it’s more like a balloon where the air is going to start leaking out.”

Real estate markets are at risk of a bubble when there is high unemployment or significant interest rate increases. This is not happening in Canada, Craig Alexander, the chief economist for TD Canada Trust, says. Instead, Alexander predicts a moderate raise in interest rates, likely by one percent a year through to 2013.

“ … I think when we see interest rates rise, we’ll see housing prices decline but it won’t be a dramatic decline,” Alexander told the Toronto Sun.

Another factor in the debate is the amount of debt carried by Canadian households.

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central Credit Union 1, dismisses this concern. He says that most of the debt Canadians carry is manageable.

“… Most of the debt is mortgages, backed by an appreciating asset, and most of the debt is issued by lenders who have pretty good lending … so generally it’s a sound form of credit,” Pastrick told the Financial Post.

In fact, the Globe and Mail’s Sean Silcoff goes as far as to call Toronto’s current real estate market “strong”.

So as we said, there is good news in the housing market right now.

5 reasons to feel good about Toronto and GTA’s real estate market

Real estate expert Mark Weisleder thinks great things are happening in Toronto’s real estate market these days.

He recently wrote in the Toronto Star:  “I believe there has never been a better time to buy a home. I’ve been in the industry for 28 years as a lawyer and I haven’t seen so many positive signs for housing …”

Weisleder isn’t the only one who thinks good things are happening in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market. Here are five reasons why now is a good to buy a home.

 

1. Mortgages rates ‘can’t get any lower’

Today’s low mortgage rates are nothing to sneeze at. In his article, Weisleder went on to say that, “(rates) can’t get any lower.” He encourages anyone with a variable mortgage to switch to a fixed rate.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), more than 99 per cent of Canadians pay their mortgages on time. Compare that to 15 per cent of American homes which are in foreclosure or under water, and it’s easy to see how our market is in much better shape than what’s happening in the States.

Weisleder also points out that Canadian lenders can sue for shortfall when a mortgage doesn’t get paid. In the States, the only option lenders have is to foreclose on the property, which weakens the market.

 

2. There are more new places to move into, and they keep on coming

Condos have changed the face of real estate in Toronto and the GTA. Last year in the 905, one in three properties sold was a condo.

It may feel like there are construction sites building new condo towers all over the place, but with over 100, 000 new people arriving to Toronto and the GTA each year, we need more of these homes.

RealNet Canada Inc. president George Carras told the Toronto Star there are only   six months of active supply housing left in Toronto. To create the housing we need, developments are getting approved faster. Not to mention, for the first time in several years, low-rise construction rates are also up, which means more choices for buyers.

 

3. So many hot spots!

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) recently analyzed neighbourhoods, and proved what many of us already knew, there are many real estate hot spots in our communities.

Milton, Richmond Hill and Markham are extra-hot right now, and Newmarket is one of the tightest markets in the GTA. Some of the fastest places to sell in Toronto are Eglinton and Mount Pleasant and Etobicoke’s Stonegate-Queensway. The good news is that should an economic downturn occur, it would unlikely affect the property values in these hotspots.

 

4. Look at prices more closely, and it’s good news

We know real estate is all about location, location, and location.  We also know that in Toronto and the GTA, great locations translate into higher property values.  Worry comes over news that markets in the U.S. and Europe have crashed over high income to home price ratios.

Not to worry, Weisleder says. Comparing the median price of homes against the median Canadian income results in a safe, 3.5 ratio, which is much lower than what was happening in the States and Europe.

 

5. Feel good about the economy  

Canadians do not have the same debt level as Americans, and the debt we do carry is mostly our mortgages, which are held at low interest rates. Weisleder points out that in a U.S. election year, any President up for re-election will work hard to ensure the economy gets better, which is good news for all of us.

A Little To The North

How to live a downtown lifestyle with an uptown address

The town motto in Richmond Hill is, “a little north, a little nicer.” But for some hardcore Torontonians, “a little north” conjures images of car co-dependency and infinite strip malls. Not so great a destination for those city-dwellers who feel the centre of the universe only exists south of Bloor.

But think again. Expanding your real estate horizons … a little north can lead to more space, lower costs and some surprising urban advantages. Maybe it’s time to open your urban heart to the northern suburbs?

Why a little north can be a little nicer than (to state the obvious) Toronto

Do Toronto in the Hill … and spend less money

 

Check out the Toronto International Festival Group’s Reel Screenings festival in Richmond Hill, where you can catch TIFF-worthy films at almost half the price you pay in Toronto ($10 for advance tickets). Not to mention, the town does their own TO-events, Richmond Hill style, such as Doors Open and the Santa Claus Parade. (With the added bonus of not having to deal with downtown traffic and parking prices.) And yes, there’s also theater, art galleries and, more importantly for caffeine addicts, great indie coffee joints. Covernotes tea and coffee house, Better Coffee Company. See, told you north can be nice. Now who wants a latte?

Foodies rejoice

It’s been (for some) an embarrassing urban secret that the best Chinese and Korean restaurants in Toronto are actually in York region. And going a little north for your food certainly doesn’t limit your choices, Chinese, Korean, or otherwise. And, of course, there are farm markets such as Reesor Farms right at your door. Dim sum, kim chi or heirloom tomatoes anyone?

Toronto doesn’t own the multicultural patent

Turns out, folks in Richmond Hill are slightly younger than the Ontario average. And not only is the town fast growing, it’s one of Canada’s more diverse communities.  But taking it a step further, Richmond Hill does diversity, well. While the Richmond Hill motto is “a little north, a little nicer” the mission statement is a meaningful: “Richmond Hill, where people come together to build our community.” But it’s about more than words, the town won an award []for their efforts to bring diversity into action, creating, among other things, a plethora of groups  and a multicultural food festival.

Trails!

Richmond Hill has got enough trails to make cyclists, skaters and hikers over in the big city realize in some ways, Toronto’s not that big. Check out, as an example, the town’s master plan to create an “interconnected Town-wide system providing safe and accessible routes through the Town’s parks and open spaces.” Interconnected! Town-wide!

For skaters (ice and inline), there’s a scenic 250-meter looped trail, the Richmond Green.

While hikers can benefit from organized Walks on the Wild Side which explore Richmond Hill’s natural heritage system. It’s right by the Greenbelt, after all.

And if this isn’t enough to convince you, the Town of Richmond Hill lists more reasons of their own [here]

There’s something about Merton

Good things keep coming to Merton Street.

The newest addition is The Merton, 12 stunning new luxury town homes, which are already under construction and promise to bring extra elegance to the street’s already bustling community.

Have you ever wondered why folks keep flocking to this quiet, midtown street? The answer is simple, there’s something about living on Merton.

 

Location, location, location

Experience the culture of many distinct Toronto communities. The Merton will be built just west of Mount Pleasant Avenue, where stunning neighborhoods surround the address. Walk over to Leaside’s friendly yet stylish Bayview Avenue. Spend your time in Mount Pleasant Village, or hop over for some excitement close by at Yonge and Eglinton. Head south to Yonge and St. Clair, and experience Deer Park. Not bad for one address!

… And the location is convenient!

Living in North Toronto means having the best of downtown and uptown lifestyles. Merton Street is walking distance to Davisville subway station. But unlike downtown living, Merton is also uptown enough to be car friendly. There’s ample parking (metered and two lots) on the street for your driving visitors. Walk, drive or bike to several neighborhood grocery stores. Find anything you need on Yonge Street, or Mount Pleasant. It’s all about location, location, location, that’s convenient, convenient, convenient!

Shopping, darlings, shopping

Speaking of things you need, living on Merton means having great shopping at your doorstep. And who doesn’t need to buy stuff? The different neighborhoods around Merton are a shopper’s paradise. Bayview and Mount Pleasant were made for high-end window-shopping. Find a vintage bargain at the Elegant Garage Sale, pick up a great mystery at the Sleuth of Baker Street or find anything you could possibly need at Jacaranda Tree and Co. (And much more!)

Eating!

There’s good food close-by Merton Street. No, make that great food. Mount Pleasant and Bayview are restaurant hot spots, with many critically acclaimed Indian, Italian and Japanese venues. Find great chocolate shops, and countless bakeries, specializing in everything from heavenly fresh breads to sinful baked goods. Go on and pamper your foodie self!

Great outdoor living in the big city

With all that nearby indulgence, outdoor activity is a good thing!

Toronto says it’s a “city inside a park”, and living on Merton Street is no exception. There are four parkettes close by, Balliol, Fiona Nelson, Glebe Manor Square, June Rowlands, and Mount Pleasant.

Finally, cyclists can access the Belt Line Trail, an almost 10 km old railway trail from the Moore Park ravine.

We told you, there’s something about Merton.